The demographic explosion

Just a very quick thought from A&E over the past couple of days.

When I trained, it was unusual to see a 90 year old and very rare to see a 100 year old. Now we see someone that age what seems like every day. Today was no exception, with four octogenarians and four nonagenarians in the department.

Life expectancy for baby boomers born in 1951 was 66.4 for men and 71.5 years for women, according to the Office of National Statistics . For millennials born in 2001, this was 76.0 for boys and 80.6 years for girls.

This matters because much of this increase was not predicted, yet was used as a basis for pensions - many of which had a retirement age of 55 to 60 years. It is not hard to calculate that a 90 year old who went to work at the age of 16 and retired at 60 has only worked half of their lives and have been drawing pensions for a third of their lives.

Given the ratio of workers to pensioners has collapsed, it is not hard to see why the Ponzi scheme has effectively lasted only a single generation. Similarly, the health budget will always struggle to keep pace with these demographic realities. One argument often heard from baby boomers is that they “have paid into the system all their lives” - with the greatest of respect, I cannot possibly see how this could have been the case.