Adam Smith Institute

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The end is nigh (again)

The Millerites were the followers of the teachings of William Miller, who in 1833 first shared publicly his belief that the Second Advent of Jesus Christ would occur in roughly the year 1843–1844. This was later pinned down by biblical scholarship to happen on October 22nd, 1844.

That October day, 175 years ago, the day Jesus was expected to return, ended without it happening. Millerite leaders and followers were left generally bewildered and disillusioned. The next day was called "The Great Disappointment." A similar event occurred in 2012 when the world's end, allegedly predicted in the Mayan Calendar, failed to show up.

There have been many predictions of doom and disaster over the centuries, but there seem to be more in recent years because there is now big money in it. It sells books. It also provides  new way to attack business and capitalism for those who yearn for the good old days of Soviet central planning.

Paul Erlich has made a fortune out of it. In 1967 he said it was already too late to avert worldwide famines in 1975. In 1970 he told us the oceans would be dead by 1980. James Hansen, a NASA scientist, is also a repeat offender. In 1988 he predicted regional droughts in the 1990s, and that the oceans would rise by 6 feet, putting parts of New York under water. In 2008 he told us that the Arctic would be ice-free by 2018, reversing an earlier trend of people predicting an imminent ice age.

In 1971 Dr S I Rasool predicted a new ice age by 2020. The Guardian in 1974 told us it was coming fast, and in 1976 Stephen Schneider forecast an ice age and famines "soon." As late as 2004, the Guardian reported that Britain would be like Siberia by 2020. However, in more recent years the 'melters,' led by Al Gore, have greatly outnumbered the 'freezers.'

Several people have compiled lists of doom prophecies that failed to materialize. Here is a selection of them (sources are readily googleable).

1966: Oil will run out in ten years

1967: Famines by 1975

1968: Worldwide overpopulation

1970: World's natural resources run out

1970: Ice Age by 2000

1970: Water rationing in US by 1974, food rationing by 1980

1971: New ice age by 2020 or 2030

1974: Satellites show new ice age near

1976: Scientific consensus that Earth is cooling.

1978: 30-year cooling trend continues

1980: Acid rain kills life in lakes

1980: Peak oil in 2000

1988: Regional droughts by 1990s

1988: Maldives underwater by 2018

1989: Nations will be wiped out if nothing done by 2000

2000: Children won’t know what snow Is

2002: Peak Oil in 2010

2002: Famine in 10 years unless we stop eating fish, meat, and dairy products

2004: Britain will be Siberia by 2020

2008: Arctic will be ice free by 2018

2008: Al Gore predicts ice-free Arctic by 2013

2009: Prince Charles says we have 96 months to save the world

2009: Gordon Brown says we have 50 days to "save the planet from catastrophe"

2013: Arctic ice-free by 2015

2014: Only 500 days before ‘climate chaos’

Some of these came from reputable scientists, and some from headline-hungry popularizers. The fact that none of it happened does not stop others making similar forecasts of imminent disaster, but it does give it some kind of perspective. We are now told of an extinction crisis. It is unlikely that we will go extinct, being resourceful enough to stop it, but it is likely that when the date passes without it happening, alarmed voices will be telling us that doom is coming soon.