BEIS should replace older generation reactors with modern, and safer, Small Modular Reactors and Advanced Modular Reactors to meet decarbonisation goals and prevent black-outs, says think-tank

• The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) is underestimating the UK’s electricity demand in 2050. In particular, it appears to be failing to take into account the fact that we will not be able to rely on Variable Renewable Energy, such as wind and solar, to provide adequate baseload;

• As a result, BEIS is also underestimating how much nuclear power will be required if the Government intends to maintain its goal of decarbonising the UK’s electricity system by 2035;

• Rather than replacing our current nuclear capacity with older generation nuclear reactors, the Government should look to fast-track approval for modern Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and Advanced Modular Reactors (AMRs);

A new report from the Adam Smith Institute (ASI), Keeping the Lights On: Testing the Government’s Projections for Electricity Supply and Nuclear Capacity, argues that BEIS is underestimating the UK’s electricity demand in 2050. In particular, it appears to be failing to take into account the fact that we will not be able to rely on Variable Renewable Energy (VRE), such as wind and solar, during periods of Dunkelflaute (when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow). As a result, it is underestimating how much nuclear power will be required if the Government intends to maintain its goal of decarbonising the UK’s electricity system by 2035. If the Government intends for nuclear power to make up 25% of electricity generation by 2050, then eight times more nuclear generation than what Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C will generate is required. 

The authors highlight the need to fast-track approval for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), which would address the shortfall in zero energy carbon generation, and Advanced Modular Reactors (AMRs), which would be a better solution in the medium term. 

As the paper outlines, SMRs are quick to build, and have far smaller capital costs and space requirements. Owing to their modern safety design and the fact that they are mostly low pressure, SMRs should also be less of a safety hazard and their regulation could be streamlined if the UK fast-tracked any design that had been approved in the USA or Canada. Similarly, AMRs, which also operate at low-pressure, could be supplied from 2030 onwards if the UK were to fast-track regulatory approval. This would require rapid decision-making and action along the lines of finding, approving and manufacturing the Covid vaccine. 

Daniel Pryor, Head of Research at the Adam Smith Institute, said:

“Under current plans the UK looks unlikely to produce enough electricity to meet future needs or decarbonise the electricity system by 2035. Politicians must urgently explore alternatives to traditional nuclear reactors if they want to rectify this situation. 

Small modular reactors—including advanced modular reactors—offer a potential solution in terms of faster construction time, lower cost and enhanced safety. By working with our international partners, we can create a nimble regulatory framework to bring these emerging technologies to market more quickly.”

-ENDS- 

Notes to editors:  

For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact Emily Fielder, emily@adamsmith.org | 0758 477 8207.

Simon Clanmorris has a Law Degree from Cambridge University, qualified as a Chartered Accountant, and is now retired.

Peter Edwards is an Emeritus Professor of Inorganic Chemistry, Oxford University and a Fellow of St Catherine’s College.

Dr Paul Norman is Professor of Nuclear Physics & Nuclear Energy at the University of Birmingham, where he runs two postgraduate MSc courses in Physics & Technology of Nuclear Reactors, and in Nuclear Decommissioning & Waste Management. 

The Adam Smith Institute is a free market, neoliberal think tank based in London. It advocates classically liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world.