Innovation not Prohibition

Thanks to a healthy combination of private sector innovation and pragmatic public health policy, the UK had, for a long time, led the way in reducing smoking rates. Over the past decade, they have plummeted from 20% in 2012 to just 14.7% in 2021. 

Contrary to what we hear from public health officials, this remarkable success is not the result of yet more bureaucracy and overregulation. It’s the product of market forces. To tackle the harms caused by cigarette smoking, businesses moved to create safer alternatives like vapes, nicotine pouches, and heated tobacco products, referred to by the catchy name of tobacco harm reduction (THR) products.

Research by The Adam Smith Institute demonstrates that if we continue to encourage smokers to switch to THR products, the UK could save 19 million years of life by 2030. This staggering figure highlights the transformative power of consumer capitalism - smokers wanted safer products and the market delivered. 

However, the government's new strategy threatens to undermine this progress. The punitive measures outlined in the Tobacco and Vapes Bill 2024 (lowlights include a generational smoking ban and ill-conceived restrictions on the marketing of harm-reduction products) along with separate legislation targeting disposable vapes, would sabotage the UKs relatively effective harm reduction strategy. 

Consider the illiberal generational smoking ban. While much ink has been spilt over its authoritarian nature, it also flies in the face of good sense. Even under the most optimistic modelling, the UK would not achieve its smoke-free target (defined as an adult smoking rate of under 5%) until after 2040 - more than 10 years later than the Government's existing 2030 target. Although banning anyone born after 2009 from legally buying cigarettes might be a good way to grab headlines, it would be an incredibly slow method of actually reducing the harm caused by cigarettes. 

And, of course, it won’t work. Prohibitionism is rarely successful. During South Africa’s now reversed tobacco ban, legal cigarette sales were swiftly replaced by black market transactions whilst, in Australia, restrictive vaping policies catalysed a violent illegal trade. This isn't just a quirk of modernity. In the early 20th century, Protestant-led efforts to ban alcohol sales in the US resulted in the proliferation of speakeasies, ultimately outnumbering the legal bars that had existed before prohibition. Bans only serve to fuel criminality.

Although it might be the most egregious, the generational smoking ban isn't the only new ‘anti-smoking’ measure that’s in need of a re-think. Plans to introduce marketing restrictions on THR products and ban disposable vapes are equally ill-conceived, undermining the very policies that caused so many smokers to give up to begin with. Punitive regulations on THR products perpetuate the harmful misconception that they are as dangerous as cigarettes, discouraging smokers from making the switch. Worryingly, evidence suggests that 29% of disposable vape users could revert to smoking if they are banned.

Instead of following the data, the government is engaging in dangerous virtue signalling, pursuing ill-conceived policies that place an ideological hostility to THR products over public health policy. Politicians must understand that they cannot simply legislate away nicotine addiction.

Nonetheless, there are several pragmatic steps our government can take to nudge smokers into making healthier choices. Reversing the vape tax, legalising Swedish snus and easing the confusing restrictions on marketing THR products would be a great place to start. These measures would actively encourage consumers to opt for safer alternatives, mirroring Sweden’s harm reduction strategy, which has driven smoking rates down to an impressive 4.5%

Medical officials could also provide more clarity about relative risk, enacting a robust public health campaign to de-bunk dangerous myths about the safety of THR products. As it stands, 60% of the public believe that e-cigarettes and cigarettes are equally harmful - a widespread myth that runs utterly contrary to the science! Expanding access to THR products in pharmacies, hospitals, and hospitality venues, as well as boosting the Swap To Stop scheme, would help to tackle this misconception, lending THR products the seal of institutional legitimacy. When it equates cigarettes with THR products, the government inadvertently undermines its goal of a Smoke Free 2030.

The UK’s remarkable progress in reducing smoking has been fueled by innovation, not heavy-handed prohibition. If politicians are truly committed to saving lives, they must champion harm reduction strategies that leverage market-driven solutions instead of stifling them. Not only does this approach safeguards our civil liberties, it also delivers real, proven results.