Let Northern Ireland do its own thing
Brussels thinks the UK should be grateful that they are allowing Northern Ireland to be an honorary member of the EU. It certainly helps Northern Irish trade with the south of the island and the rest of the EU. But self-centred as Brussels is, they cannot, or pretend not to, grasp that the word “union” is just as important for the United Kingdom. Under the Northern Ireland Protocol, which Boris Johnson signed allegedly to get the rest of the deal done, Northern Ireland is more united with the EU than it is with the UK. How anyone who actually read it could think it would get a positive deal for the UK is beyond me.
The UK negotiators concede bits and pieces, such as allowing the EU full, but unreciprocated, access to UK trade IT systems but the reality is that the Westminster amateurs are playing the Brussels professionals and making no progress whatsoever. That suits Brussels and they may be waiting for Sir Keir Starmer’s even more amateurish team to take Westminster’s seats. Vain hope: the civil servants will be the same and so will their certainty that Westminster knows best.
The DUP have made it clear that they will not allow Stormont to function unless the new protocol complies with the DUP’s “seven tests”:
No new checks of any sort on goods being traded between GB and NI, excluding pre-Brexit checks on livestock and goods moving onwards from NI;
Compatibility with the Act of Union which says all parts of the UK should be on equal footing when it comes to trade;
Avoiding any diversion of trade where NI customers are forced to switch to non-GB suppliers;
No border in the Irish Sea;
NI citizens to have a role in any new regulations which impact them;
No new regulatory barriers between GB and NI unless agreed by the NI Assembly, and
Honouring the 'letter and spirit' of NI's constitutional position as set out in the Good Friday Agreement by requiring upfront consent of any diminution in constitutional status.
You might think that, being aware of that, the Westminster negotiating team would include the DUP, or at the very least consult with them as negotiations proceeded. Oh dear me no! Mr Cleverly and his team are only concerned with how to “sell” whatever deal they do to Belfast politicians once the deal is done.
It is common sense that the home side playing against top class professionals should muster the best team it can. Conceding dribs and drabs without reciprocal concessions is simply weakness and so is failing to include your toughest players. No matter how good the deal Messrs Sunak and Cleverly bring home, Northern Irish politicians are not going to welcome something they had no part in.
John Major may not have involved the rebels in his 1991 Maastricht’s negotiations but his was such a brilliant performance that the other EU leaders applauded. No signs that anyone will be applauding the Sunak/Cleverly performance.
In one respect, delay may help the DUP but only if they can maintain a political majority in Stormont. The protocol is up for renegotiation anyway in 2025 under Protocol Article 18(5), if there is a democratic majority for that, but it would clearly be better to conclude something sooner.
The way forward should be for Westminster to stop fantasising that they are making progress and making unreciprocated small concessions, which the DUP will not recognise anyway, but invite the DUP, or a Stormont cross-party team of MLAs, to come up with a joint solution. Ultimate authority would remain with London and Brussels but, frankly, if all Ireland is happy with the outcome, why should anyone else care?