Protocol Follies
When Lord Frost bowed out, we optimists hoped revising the Northern Ireland protocol would finally progress. Sadly, the same old follies still seem to be running. Chief among them is the PM’s lack of probity of which only he seems unaware. On 13th June he announced that the changes in the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill were just a set of “relatively trivial set of adjustments“. When the Bill was published a few hours later, it emerged that at least four major changes that the UK has been seeking since the protocol was signed, will now be swept in by UK unilateral decree. The folly is to believe, even if the PM has now produced the perfect solution, anyone would believe him.
Introducing a bill that turns out simultaneously to alienate Brussels, Dublin, Washington and almost all the members of the Stormont Assembly, is quite a coup. But then one should not be surprised that the author of the problems is more likely to worsen, than solve, them. For whatever reasons, our Prime Minister signed up to trade between two parts of the UK being governed by EU rules even though neither part is a member of the EU. Now, for the first time ever, he has even unified Stormont’s opinion: 52 MLAs signed a letter rejecting the bill and the 28 DUP MLAs also oppose it. That’s 80 out of 90.
That matters because of devolution, As the explanatory note puts it: “24 The Bill contains provisions which cover devolved or transferred matters. Where the Bill engages the Legislative Consent Motion process, the UK Government will write to the devolved administrations to seek consent to legislate in the normal manner.” The DUP is opposing Whitehall’s efforts to reform the protocol by causing Stormont not to operate. Ironically, they will now have to open Stormont’s doors in order to oppose the Bill.
The PM should recognise the hole he is in and stop digging. He should recognise that the protocol mostly, and perhaps only, concerns Dublin and Belfast, step away and invite their governments to come up with a joint solution. In other words, the second folly is Whitehall’s enduring vanity, namely that they, and only they, are wise enough to know the answers. The DUP rightly felt excluded from the original protocol drafting, its agreement and subsequent negotiations. Hardly surprising then that they have no ownership of it. It is high time they stepped up to the plate and used their good relationship with Dublin to be constructive. And Sinn Fein should also be involved.
A number of the intentions in the new Bill are perfectly sensible, dividing east to west Irish Sea trade into two channels, for example: green (nothing to declare) channel for goods intended for the Northern Ireland market and red for the Republic, with all the paperwork and duties the EU requires. This must have been discussed before so why was it rejected? Why ship goods intended for the Republic of Ireland to Northern Ireland in the first place? Prohibiting that would save a lot of hassle and require no new legislation. The new Bill may deal with mixed, North and South, loads but this non-legal reader could not see how.
There is the possibility that this Bill, hugely criticised as it will be, is not a folly at all but what the military call a “false target”. In other words, it will never become law but the gunfire will better identify where the EU is really at and how the existing log jam can be broken. The protocol itself has better procedures for amendment than unilateral action such as this and yet Whitehall has elected not to use them. That makes this Bill either a foolish folly or a false target. Time will reveal which.