Reasons for optimism - artificial intelligence
There are very few areas of human activity that will not be affected in major ways by artificial intelligence. AI was originally defined as anything done by a machine that would previously have needed human intelligence, but modern definitions include the notion of machines that can learn, adapt, improvise, and apply their knowledge to new situations.
The key factor is the speed with which they can work, coupled with the range of knowledge they can draw upon to interpret new scenarios. Machines are good at automating routine, repetitive work. Even though many such tasks are performed by relatively unskilled labour, AI could even take over more skilled tasks such as the work done by solicitors in accessing the legal history of previous cases.
Among the benefits AI will bring is the use of speech and language recognition to aid in translation and transcription. Their developing capabilities at facial recognition and surveillance are already used in crime fighting and prevention. Some supermarkets use facial recognition to identify repeat offender shoplifters, while law enforcement now uses AI that can predict from a person’s movements on camera whether they are likely to be planning to carry out a terrorist attack. There are obvious privacy and ethical issues to be addressed here, to ensure that a balance is struck between protecting people and invading their privacy.
AI will have a major role to play in healthcare, spotting and correlating symptoms to identify potential problems that a more fallible human observer might miss. Eye examination, for example, can pick up the small changes that have in past cases been precursors of serious conditions. AI will similarly play an increasing role in the early detection of cancers by picking up a combination of symptoms and anomalies whose significance might be missed by human observers.
In transport AI will enable the autonomous cars, trucks, ships and planes that will carry people and freight more rapidly and more safely than human drivers could. It will enable people to converse and interact advantageously with machines. They will, in effect, become personal assistants.
The 2020 success of AlphaFold 2 in solving the decades-old problem of determining the 3D structure of proteins indicates the role that AI can play at the frontiers of scientific research, and its finding has huge significance for tracking human diseases.
Two questions are raised concerning AI. Does it threaten humanity by making us outdated and inferior? And does it threaten huge numbers of jobs? The answer to the first is no. It will be introduced as a partner, rather than as a competitor. The second answer is a partial yes, it will take over large numbers of jobs. In doing so it will make operations and operators more productive, and will generate the wealth that will lead to other jobs being created. It may be, however, that AI will lead to the necessities of life such as food and transport being handled by machines, leaving humans free to engage in activities they regard as more rewarding.
Humanity could be headed for something like the slave economies of the ancient world, but in this case the slaves will not suffer.