Reasons for optimism - autonomous vehicles

One of the technological developments that will transform the British, and much of the world’s, economy is the emergence of autonomous (self-driving) vehicles. It will make a huge and positive change in the way in which people and goods are transported by land, sea and air. It will be a positive development because it will be faster, safer and cheaper.

The artificial intelligence that controls autonomous vehicles will not make the driver errors that are the major cause of road traffic deaths, currently about 1,750 per year in the UK, or the roughly 25,000 serious injuries sustained annually. Communication with other autonomous vehicles, will enable much of the current traffic congestion to be avoided. Journeys will be faster as well as safer.

Marine transport will be similarly autonomous, with fewer crew needed, and the enhanced ability of ships to avoid collisions with other ships or with rocks and reefs. Higher speeds and shorter transit times will be possible, speeding up the flow of trade and lowering its costs.

The automation of passenger and freight transport on roads will lower costs because machines are less costly to operate than people. There will be dislocation as the jobs dwindle for truck and bus drivers, for chauffeurs and cab drivers, just as the advent of railways and automobiles cut the jobs for coach drivers, postilions, grooms, stable boys and blacksmiths. But the economic growth spurred on by the change will itself create the new jobs to replace them. Increased productivity means more output per worker, and autonomous vehicles will make those still involved in transportation much more productive, lowering costs and increasing economic growth.

There will be autonomous air transport, in addition, involving people-carrying drones as well as the automation of more conventional aircraft. In all of these cases there will be convenience and new capability added to the safety, the speed and the reduced costs. The ability to have passengers and goods lifted directly from tall buildings will dramatically cut congestion and travel times. Artificial Intelligence can handle the traffic in three dimensions in a way that would be difficult, if not impossible, for human operators.

These developments will amount to an economic revolution, but it will be a positive one, just as electricity was, because of the opportunities they bring. Commentators who predict a future of stagnation and falling living standards are failing to account for the economic impact that technological innovations can bring. The impact of autonomous vehicles is set to be both transformative and positive.