Smoke-Free Projection Extended by 9 years

As published in The Guardian yesterday, analysts at Cancer Research UK believe the government's smoke-free by 2030 target is doomed. Instead, the charity suggests that the key public health milestone will be reached by 2039. 

The report states, “Our updated projections, based on the continuation of recent trends, indicate that smoking prevalence will continue to fall in England, but not fast enough to achieve the smoke-free ambition set out.”

However, with the analysis coming so close to the controversial budget, it’s not altogether clear if 2039 is even feasible. The Chancellor of the Exchequer’s £2.20 per 10ml tax on e-liquids will make vaping less affordable and hurt the UK’s most vulnerable citizens.

When combined with the eagerness of the government and certain organisations to push through the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, we could start to see the destruction of the UK’s greatest “smoke-free” ally, harm reduction products.

When the Department of Health and Social Care says, “The Tobacco and Vapes Bill will be the biggest public health intervention in a generation,” they might be right. The problem is that these proposed rules will intervene in a private-sector solution that has been instrumental in reducing smoking rates in the UK and beyond.

The deprivation gap

The CRUK report also talks about the deprivation gap among people who smoke. They state that sometime next year, the wealthiest 10% of people in the country will hit a smoking prevalence of around 5%, aka “smoke-free.”

However, the situation for the lowest 10% is far less rosy, with CRUK predicting this cohort won’t get to 5% prevalence for another 25 years

It’s been really clear for a while that smoking harm reduction is a class issue in the UK. Finding ways to engage with these communities to help them quit is essential. 

Closing the deprivation gap

Closing the deprivation gap should be a priority. However, we already know that the current government has problems communicating with the demographic that is most affected by smoking. So, it’s hard to have faith in their ability to use public messaging, posters, and school workshops to reduce smoking prevalence in these communities. Instead, any solutions must be pragmatic and grounded in reality.

For starters, price matters. A 267% increase in the most affordable product is tantamount to an attack on poorer vapers, especially when tobacco products will not rise at close to the same rates. 

Secondly, whether you’re a fan or not, disposable vapes are effective. They’re available everywhere, day or night, and they work right out of the box. That’s not minor when you consider that about 2 in 3 lower-income homes mostly shop in-store.

Finally, studies show that flavours are an important part of satisfaction when using vapes. Anything that makes vapes more appealing to smokers is a good thing. 

Final thoughts

The free market has already provided a blueprint for how to help people stop smoking: convenient, low-cost vapes in a range of satisfying flavours. Without these products, smoking rates would be far higher than the revised 2039 prediction. 

What Alternative solutions are there then that will help solve the environmental problem disposable vapes cause and also limit underage illegal sales? I have argued in the past the issue is one of enforcing the laws that are largely in place, namely that it is illegal to sell vapes to under 18’s already. The introduction of a vape licensing scheme could bring in £50m into trading standards whose job it is to enforce the rules. This would lead to a huge increase in enforcement resources to tackle the problem, all without using taxpayers money. In regards to the “environment” a deposit return scheme would provide the market incentive for consumers to return their used products for recycling. Instead the Government is taking the route of taxes and prohibition, one that Australia has also taken with terrible results. 

Sadly, the government’s decision to punish people who have already quit smoking will have a tragic effect on “smoke free” targets. If the Government realises they just need to get out of the way to solve this problem, it will benefit UK citizens and the NHS.