Marijuana legalization in Colorado: One year on

It's been a year since Colorado became the first US state to permit the commercial sale of marijuana for non-medicinal purposes, and statistics which hint at the impact of legalization have just started to emerge. With these come two conflicting reports— one from the pro-legalization Drug Policy Alliance (DPA), and another from the anti-legalization Smart Approaches to Marijuana (SAM). The two together make for an interesting read. Unsurprisingly, there’s been an increase in the amount of cannabis consumed in Colorado, as well as in Washington, where it has also been legalized.

Both states already had a higher than the US average use of marijuana, but between 2011/12 to 2012/13 the percentage of over-18s who had used marijuana in the past year rose from 16.1% to 18.9% in Colorado, and from 15.3% to 17.6% in Washington, compared to a national increase from 11.6% to 12.2%. Past monthly use of marijuana by 18-25 year olds in 2012/13 was 29.1% in Colorado and 25.6% in Washington, compared with a 18.9% US average.

Of course, an increase in marijuana use isn't in and of itself a bad thing; what matters are the other costs and benefits to society and individuals that legal and increased use creates. Predictably, the two reports paint very different pictures of these.

The DPA point out that Marijuana possession rates in Colorado have fallen 84% since 2010, from over 9,000 arrests a year to under 1,500. However, SAM's report claims that citations for the public display of marijuana have rocketed - from 183 in 2013 to 668 in 2014 in Denver alone.

Both violent crime and property crime fell in Denver in 2014. Violent crime was down by 2.2% in the first 11 months of 2014, compared with a 1.1% decline the year before. Burglaries were down 9.5%, and overall property crime 8.9%. This, the DPA say, is evidence of legalization’s success. However, at the same time, SAM report that drug violations in Denver are up 12%, disorderly conduct up 51%, and public drunkenness up 53%.

SAM also report that the number of citations given for driving under the influence of marijuana in Colorado have risen markedly between 2013 and 2014. However, despite concerns that marijuana legalization would result in an increase in traffic fatalities, the DPA point out that Colorado saw a 3% fall in the number of fatal accidents in 2014, continuing a 12-year downward trend.

SAM’s report contains a handful negative incidents which can be directly attributed to legalization, including a rise in the number of children in ER from the accidental consumption of marijuana edibles, and an increase in people attempting to make hash oil and setting themselves on fire. However, perhaps the most interesting claim of the report is a quote from a Colorado policeman that legalization has ‘done nothing more than enhance the opportunity for the black market’.

A potential reason for continued underground dealing is that, with taxes, legally-purchased weed is up to twice the price of that on the street. However, the market demand for legal weed has far exceeded earlier estimates, including those of the Department of Revenue’s. Unsurprisingly, there’s also been a huge increase in the amount of marijuana which has been stopped from leaving Colorado for other states — a 400% rise between 2008 and 2013, SAM claim. This has resulted in neighbouring Nebraska and Oklahoma suing Colorado for the flow of marijuana across state lines. However, whilst this might present a nice new business for criminal gangs or college students, it seems unlikely that it would increase the black market's size or power compared to pre-legalization.

Of course, it’s also very difficult to know if  other reported stats like falling violent crime can actually be linked to marijuana legislation, and even things like a rise in disorderly behaviour arrests could be down to other factors. But there are a few stats we can be certain about, and these come down to cold hard cash.

Retail marijuana sales raised $40.9m in tax for Colorado between January and October 2014, and that’s not including revenue from medical sales, licenses or fees. Of the revenue collected, $2.5m has been directly set aside to fund more health professionals in Colorado public schools, many of whom will focus on mental health support and drug use education programs.

Legalization has been great for entrepreneurship, too. 16,000 people have been licensed to work in Colorado's marijuana industry so far, and unemployment is at a 6-year low. A study of two marijuana dispensaries by the University of Denver’s economics department found that they generated $30m of economic output and 280 jobs between January and July 2014 – and whilst paying ten times the amount of tax of a typical restaurant or store.

Though we can measure things like tax intake, both the DPA and SAM’s reports highlight the need for much more high-quality data, which can help unravel the effects of legalization, and quantify their impact.  This is something which will likely to emerge with time, but without reliable facts and evidence campaigners on both sides will cherry-pick stats to confirm their existing views — which is no good for the policymakers elsewhere who are watching this experiment closely. (It's certainly a shame that Theresa May is not one of them....)

Nevertheless, a year on and we can tell a couple of things. Legalization is obviously a learning curve. To avoid serious backlash, marijuana users should stop lighting up where they shouldn’t (at school, in public places, before driving, etc), whilst the green industry should probably do more to provide information on the strength and dosage of new products, and particularly edibles.

However, it’s also clear that legalization is a major boon to the public coffers, takes millions of dollars of business out of the hands of criminals and into legitimate businesses, and is a major win for liberty.

SAM may be concerned about the 100 kinds of marijuana gummy bears out there, but these THC-ripened snacks are also testament to the creativity and entrepreneurship that flourishes when the state gets out of the business of deciding what peaceful activities adults are allowed to partake in, for recreation and for profit.

A blagger's guide to the US midterm elections

Tomorrow's midterm federal elections in the United States will determine the political landscape of President Obama's final two years in office, and even though he's not up for re-election, his policies 'are on the ballot'. Here’s a quick breakdown of the game-changing races, the political mood across the swing states, and what to look for on Tuesday night.

Currently

As President Barack Obama resides over the White House, the legislative branch is operated by a divided Congress, with the Republicans in control of the House of Representatives (233/199 with John Boehner as Majority Leader) and the Democrats in control of the Senate (55/45 with Harry Reid as Majority Leader).

On Tuesday

The House of Representatives will remain firmly controlled by the Republican Party, whose historic sweep to victory in 2010 took 63 seats away from the Democratic Party. Even if the Democrats managed to win all 26 swing-elections this year, enough seats securely lean GOP to give the Republicans a comfortable majority (218+ seats).

It also appears the GOP will retain the majority of Governorships, though a few key races–like Governor Scott Walker’s (R) highly contested race in Wisconsin–threaten to throw GOP darlings out of office, who otherwise would be strong presidential candidates in 2016.

The real toss-up tomorrow will be which party controls the Senate for the next two years. And looking at the polls, it’s the Republican’s election to lose.

The Breakdown

Republicans have to gain 6 seats in the Senate to have a clear majority - if they take 5 and leave the Senate 50 / 50, Vice President Joe Biden gets the tie-breaking vote, meaning Democrats would retain control of the Senate regardless of any other race won.

Currently, the GOP is set to pick up three ‘easy’ seats in West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana: traditionally red states on the state and national level; not to mention areas where President Barack Obama lost badly in 2012.

That leaves the GOP in need of three more wins in the swing states, of which there are roughly 7 or 8, depending on your source: Alaska, Colorado (leans GOP), Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina.

The Republican advantage

The GOP has small, built-in advantages to any mid-term election, though this year is looking even better for the party than usual. Unlike the House, where each elected representative is up for re-election every two years, Senate seats are elected every six years on a rotating basis. This year, it just so happens that more Democrat-held seats are up for re-election, and they’re up for election in areas that aren’t considered ‘safe seats’ or ‘strongholds’.

It’s also the case that significantly less people show up at the voting polls for mid-term elections than for presidential elections (roughly 37.8% in 2010, compared 56.8% and 53.6% in 2008 and 2012); and those who do show up tend to lean Republican.

Interesting race to note: Kansas and 'The Establishment'

“Why Kansas Senate race could decide everything” –No pressure, but the traditionally red state that should be a safe seat for GOP candidates has been upset by Democrat-mascarading-as-Independent Greg Orman, who is running against establishment GOP candidate Pat Roberts.

Orman is, for all intensive purposes, a left-wing candidate (left-wing enough for Kansas Democrats, at least, who pulled their candidate off the ballot to give Orman a better shot at the seat). He’s shown commitment to Obamacare and campaign finance reform, and hasn’t ruled out caucusing with Reid and the Democrats, even as an Independent, to give them the 51-majority-mark to retain control of the Senate.

But as opposed as Kansas voters are to Orman's policies, they're potentially more offended by Robert's status as a 'Washington insider'. This rebellion is not just a trend in Kansas, but rising up across the entire country, as the majority of Americans now claim they don't trust the Federal Government. The Tea Party movement capitalised on this sentiment in 2010, and even 2012, but has done little to convince Kansas voters that Roberts isn't part of the structural problem.

Interesting race to note: Colorado and the 'War on Women(?)'

Colorado’s Senate race between Cory Gardner (R) and Mark Udall (D) was thought to be a swing race until very recently, when polls started indicating that the race was leaning red.

Traditionally a semi-swing state, with strong recent ties to the Democratic Party (Colorado voted for President Obama in 2008 and 2012), all signs indicate that it is not necessary the Democratic Party’s platform, but rather their political tactics, that have put left-leaning voters into the opposition’s camp.

Mark Udall (nicknamed Mark Uterus by journalists) used and abused the ‘war on women’ rhetoric to the point where it has become a joke, not just in Colorado, but throughout the entire country.

And unlike 2010/2012 elections, when it was politically popular and beneficial to use the phrase, Colorado Democrats are watching it backfire, as the gender-voting gap (for women, not for men) shrinks between Gardner and Udall.

It’s important to note the tide isn’t simply turning because of Democrat error. The GOP has finally gotten some sense on the issue, and Gardener has been campaigning to make birth control over-the-counter, non-prescription drug. A politically smart tactic on multiple levels: not only does it relieve fear that he is an anti-reproductive rights candidate, but making birth control over-the-counter is a step past what Democrats can offer women; Obamacare relies on birth control being provided via insurance policies.

If Udall loses tomorrow night, the Democrats would be unwise to see it as any kind of fluke. The ‘war on women’ has always been based on inaccuracies and lacked substance or evidence, and may not continue to sway voters as it once did.

Why is the Senate a game-changer?

Who controls the Senate for the next two years will not only have a deep impact on the end of Obama's presidency, also on the 2016 elections, when several prominent Senators will be looking to claim both the Democrat and GOP nomination.

Over the past four years, Harry Reid's policy of obstruction has stopped major legislation from being voted on in the Senate, protecting Democrats and the President from having to state their opinions publicly (by casting their vote or being put in the situation to veto legislation). If Republicans take control of the Senate, new Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) will most certainly hold the Senate to votes on legislation from the House; come 2016, ambitious Senators will be running on their voting records, not just their political promises.

Early signs on Tuesday night

If North Carolina and New Hampshire, which are thought to be leaning ever-so-slightly blue, come out early for the GOP candidates, we are probably looking at a sweep across the board, with a strong majority of GOP reps taking the Senate.

Likewise, if Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia–all leaning red–turn out to be tight races with close vote counts, the GOP could be looking at a long night of close races and very possibly a crushing defeat.

If neither scenario plays out, anything goes. There's no doubt that the GOP will be taking seats away from Democrats on Tuesday night–but if they fall short of 6, even by 1, it's at least two more years Harry Reid and political gridlock, Not to mention an even tougher hill to climb come next fall. As if Capitol Hill weren't elevated enough.