The illusion that one can be scientific about complex phenomena (such as the workings of economic life) that depend on facts, values and information that we could never ascertain, is a dangerous one.

Economists believe that, with proper scientific understanding and analysis, they can make policy recommendations to governments that will improve the stability, efficiency, and operation of economic life.

We can’t predict football matches, so why think we can predict the economy? The outcome of a match depends on so many factors: the teams’ structure and support, the players’ motivation, skill health, energy, confidence, ability to spot opportunities, and luck in taking them — and more.

Mathematics can help economists describe the patterns they see in economic statistics such as total investment, consumption, growth, inflation, and unemployment. They formulate equations to show the correlations between these total (or ‘aggregate’) measures.

Natural scientists search for patterns and correlations in the data that they compile from systematic experimentation and observation of events. Having measured the data and identified these relationships, they can then make predictions that help human beings understand and control the world they live in.

Today it is 50 years since Margaret Thatcher became leader of the Conservative Party — and took it, and the UK, in a completely new direction.

The Chancellor’s new growth proposals have been heavily leaked. They are worth serious consideration.