An interesting thing about climate that very few seem to grasp

Not just an interesting thing but a vitally important thing that very few seem to grasp. We, here in Britain, have already avoided those worst predictions of Ecogotterdammerung. Not that we’d know it from the public pronouncements but this is in fact true - always a useful attribute for a factoid about the world to have.

The proof is here:

Britain has already reduced emissions by 45 per cent since 1990 as it has phased out coal and developed its offshore wind sector.

Those predictions of Flipper’s imminent fate - to be broiled in the fumes of the last ice floe - depend upon a model called RCP 8.5. For which we need a continued and large rise in emissions over that same period. We have cut emissions over that period, not increased them, therefore RCP 8.5 is not the world that is going to happen.

Sure, what other people do here matters rather more than what we do. Global emissions create global problems, the atmosphere isn’t taking note of national borders. On the other hand we really are only responsible for what we do so that’s got to be the measure of our actions and our policy.

The reason this becomes important is that all the predictions of coming doom if we don’t abandon gas boilers, kill the ICE in favour of EVs, stop eating meat and all the rest of it, they all depend upon RCP 8.5 being the path we’re on. If we’re not on that path, say we’re on RCP 4.5 - consistent with our having reduced emissions by 45% already - then climate change and global warming become minor problems which pass in the normal course of technological development.

All the screaming depends upon RCP 8.5 happening. To prevent RCP 8.5 happening all that is necessary is for everyone to do what we in Britain have already done, reduce emissions by 45% from 1990 levels. Which, if we’re honest about it, doesn’t seem like all that much of a problem. It’s been expensive, it’s been done and incentivised the wrong way and so on, certainly, but it has been done without having to overturn society, markets and capitalism.

Which is why, in our more cynical moments, the screaming continues. For some out there it’s much more important to overturn society than it is to deal with the identified problem of climate change. Views might differ on this point, adjust to your own level of cynicism.

A world which had reduced emissions by 45% from 1990 would not be facing any significant problems from climate change. A world in which the rich countries alone did so would still be one entirely inconsistent with the claims of extreme damage under that standard assumption of RCP 8.5.

We have, in Britain, already done our bit.