MiliEd is making one heck of a bet about dunkelflautes

This is a fairly horrifying chart:

Recent energy generation in Germany - and as noted, this is after Germany has spent €500 billion (we’ve heard higher, perhaps a € trillion) on lots of that lovely renewable energy. Of which there isn’t very much because we’ve a dunkelflaute. A not uncommon (one estimate has this as being a 50/50 chance for a couple of weeks every 5 years or so) event where there’s low cloud and pretty much no wind.

As far as we can tell - it’s always difficult to quite grasp what people are really suggesting in this field - all of that gas and coal needs to be replaced by batteries. Varied Greens, greens and environmentalists won’t allow anyone to build dams and atomkraft is, of course, entirely out, to the extent of being prematurely closed down. So, we can’t use hydro and nuclear.

This is also, as far as we understand it, the intention for this country. That it should be wind and solar and batteries.

Which is a bit of a problem. Given current technologies and the costs of them enough batteries to power the entire country for a couple of weeks would cost more than all the money made by everyone over the entirety of time*.

So, what are people thinking - assuming that there is indeed thought going on? As we say, properly divining what is being thought and said is difficult here. But as we understand it there’s a claim that batteries are going to get much cheaper. The proof of this is that solar did so therefore batteries will. Economies of scale kick in, d’ye see? Thereby making everything so cheap that it works.

Which is to misunderstand how technology works. It is entirely true that solar has got very much cheaper over the decades. About 20% a year, 4% or so a quarter. So, folk point to that and see the correlation with large scale roll out and assume that this will be true of large scale roll out of batteries too. ‘S’obvious, see?

But solar was getting cheaper at 20% a year in the decades before large scale roll out. It’s still getting cheaper at that 20% a year rate. It was getting cheaper at 20% a year during the large scale roll out. Windmills have not been getting cheaper at 20% a year. They weren’t before large scale roll out, they weren’t during large scale roll out and they’re not right now either.

Sure, economies of scale exist. Large scale production of something is likely to become more efficient over time. But the rate at which it does depends upon the specific technology under discussion. It is not possible to look at solar and claim that batteries will do the same. Well, OK, it is possible because that’s what we think people are currently doing so let us amend - it is not sensible to so assume. For it hasn’t happened with windmills, nor many another technology over the centuries.

We’d even agree on marginal efficiency gains through mass production. But not - not necessarily - orders of magnitude improvements carrying on for decades.

Yet - again, as far as we understand it - this is the bet being placed. That the cost curve for batteries is going to be like that for solar. So, all we need to do is insist that capitalism build batteries and she’ll be right. Which is a heck of a bet to be placing. One that really does seem very high risk indeed. Too high risk even.

It could be true that batteries follow the solar cost curve. We’d tend to think not given the limits of what is known about chemistry and so on. But we’re at least willing to entertain the idea. But, umm, what’s the back up plan if they don’t?

Tim Worstall

*Possibly a rhetorical exaggeration but not much of one.

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