Of course the Bank of England will not predict the next crisis

The Bank of England treats us all to a statement of the obvious here:

Bank of England: Our economic forecasts will always be wrong

The Bank of England will "probably not forecast the next financial crisis" as economic forecasting can never be completely accurate, top officials have warned.

The Bank has poured resources into economic forecasting since the financial crisis when its predictions were utterly wrong.

There are three entirely independent reasons why that next crisis - and there will be one - won't be predicted. The first is as the Bank says, economic models of the economy aren't all that good. It's a complex, chaotic, system and we don't model those well and further, as Hayek pointed out, we're never going to be able to assemble the information to even know in detail what has happened, let alone what is or will.

This is why planning an economy does not work.

The second is that efficient markets hypothesis. Markets process extant information efficiently (do note that's all the theory says, it's nothing to do with trying to assert that markets are always the efficient method of doing something) and thus move only when new information arrives. We cannot predict new information, that's the very reason that it is in fact new information.

The third is much more basic in its logic. Imagine that we do manage to, through the fog of misinformation, note that something which is likely to be problematic is about to happen. Thus we act to stop it being a problem, don't we? In which case there is no crisis as we've been able to predict it.

The BoE is quite right that they won't predict the next crisis but that's a comment about the nature of the beast, not some failing of the BoE.