Solving budget problems - Cancel HS2 now
As has long, long, been pointed out the basic cost benefit analysis of HS2 is fatally flawed. The benefit is that those business class - first class - passengers get to their destination faster. That time saved is valued at their pay rate. An entirely normal manner of calculation by the way.
But that case contains the terrible flaw that we’ve invented mobile internet. Therefore time spent on a train is not valueless in terms of work done, the assumption made. In fact, given the interruptions of modern office life the time lost to Gavin announcing that the train will be departing soon is less, umm, interrupting than being in said office. Given the dependence of the HS2 numbers on that value of first class passengers’ time this blows that hole in that cost benefit analysis.
We can also do something entirely different and look elsewhere for guidance. Given that so many things do start in California, to then spread, their experience:
The infamous, $113-billion-and-counting California high-speed rail line between San Francisco and Los Angeles, which was supposed to be completed by 2020 for a cost of $33 billion yet has only begun tinkering on a 171-mile stretch in the Central Valley, is not really "an existing project," says former California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) Chair Quentin Kopp. "It is a loser."
Added ex-chair Michael Tennenbaum: "I don't know how they can build it now." And California State Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon (D–Lakewood): "There is nothing but problems on the project."
Quite. Given that California is indeed providing that experience of the future to us we really should be taking note.
Government needs - so it says - to find significant savings in spending currently. Great, cancel HS2. It always was a dog of an idea and it’s time to put it down.
We can even approach this in a third manner, one that’s wholly, exactly and entirely conclusive. Back 12 years George Monbiot was able to spot the economic flaw in the plan. And let’s be serious about this, wholly, exactly and entirely. If even George Monbiot can spot the error in your economics then you’re really howling at the Moon.
Save money, kill a train set today.