This is not, in fact, science, it’s political wishing

Some climate change news:

The world has enough fossil fuel projects planned to meet global energy demand forecasts to 2050 and governments should stop issuing new oil, gas and coal licences, according to a large study aimed at political leaders.

If governments deliver the changes promised in order to keep the world from breaching its climate targets no new fossil fuel projects will be needed, researchers at University College London and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) said on Thursday.

No new fossil fuels required being predicated on government projects coming in on time. That’s, umm, useful.

Dr Steve Pye, a co-author of the report from the UCL Energy Institute, said: “Importantly, our research establishes that there is a rigorous scientific basis for the proposed norm by showing that there is no need for new fossil fuel projects.”

“The clarity that this norm brings should help focus policy on targeting the required ambitious scaling of renewable and clean energy investment, whilst managing the decline of fossil fuel infrastructure in an equitable and just way,” Pye said.

As we say, that’s not science, that’s political wishing. If governments do such and such on time then governments can also do this other thing. There’s an awful lot resting upon that “on time” qualification to government action.

As far as we know there has been only one British Government major engineering or infrastructure project that came in under or on time. That was Polaris and that was bought off the shelf from the Americans.

The “if therefore” logic being used here makes us think that rather more fossil fuel projects should be approved in fact. For what does happen in 2049 if the Minister has to start saying there’s been a bit of slippage here and there?