To our surprise, another thing that Polly Toynbee doesn't understand

That we’re not great fans of the logical or observational qualities of Polly Toynbee merely makes us rational and capable of logic and observation ourselves. But it does still come as a surprise to find another thing that Polly manages to entirely misunderstand:

Britain’s birthrate is plummeting. The already fast-falling rate has sunk into yet steeper decline during the pandemic, as people stop having babies when times are hard – and there may not be a bounceback.

No, people stop having babies when times are good.

All the reasons for this are depressing, signifying hardship, insecurity and anxiety. It tells of a society where bringing up children is too heavy a burden on women, with too many obstacles to earning while parenting.

Again, no, the opposite is true. The global and historical data is here. As a place, society or country gets richer then fertility rates decline. As the economic liberation of women proceeds then fertility rates decline. As the opportunity costs of having children rise - as there are more and other things to do with a life than pump out children - the fertility rate declines.

To the extent that a declining fertility rate is a problem - we can’t see it as being such, it is the aggregate of personal choices in a world that newly allows them and so is emergent from the liberal ideal - it’s a problem of wealth, not poverty.

As we’ve been known to note over the years it is impossible to craft a solution to a perceived problem unless we correctly identify what the cause is.

Absolutely every country that has empowered women, raised the general income much above subsistence level, has a fertility rate below replacement level. There are no exceptions whatever the levels of maternity leave, child care arrangements, schooling, even religious arrangements.

This is just what people do when given the freedom to make the choice - have fewer children. And?