We do hope the new Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, is better at his sums than this
This is slightly alarming:
Crucially for his upcoming Budget, he found a “natural ceiling” on the amount of tax the Government can rake in, and said he sees that as the ceiling for spending too.
“Since 1955 tax receipts, with limited variation and remarkable consistency, have averaged 36pc to 38pc of GDP. In spite of the vast differences between Labour and Conservative members in our approach to setting tax rates, the average tax take has been remarkably similar under Governments of both parties,” he said.
“There appears to be a natural ceiling to what any Government can extract from the pockets of its hard-working taxpayers.
“That to me suggests a simple conclusion: in normal times, public spending should not exceed 37pc of GDP. That is the best estimate of our income as a Government and therefore the best guide to what we can afford to spend.”
The basic idea - there’s only a certain amount of plucking the geese will not hiss at - we agree with. That number being rather more socially determined than by anything else. Different societies do have different amounts of government going on after all. We also agree that the UK hisses at a lower level of government than some other places.
It’s the sums there that worry us more than a little bit. For the tax to GDP ratio isn’t 36 to 38% of GDP, nothing like. Since 2000 it’s been running at 32 to 34%. It is total government receipts which runs at that higher rate, not taxes.
A difference that we’d rather hope the person doing our communal sums understands.