We do wish that people would check the facts

We do think it slightly odd that we seem to be the only liberals left in town. There’s that little groundswell going on about Britain’s low fertility rate for example. Something must be done to ensure that there’s a population to tax in 50 years time, something like that.

We find the attitude puzzling to say the least. As liberals the aim, the goal, the value, is the liberty to be able to choose. So, if in a free society adult Britons choose to have fewer little Britons then, well, that’s the outcome of the liberty, isn’t it? Shrug. The liberty to make the choice is the societal aim, the results of the choices are irrelevant - absent third party effects of course.

But within that, as with all other arguments, we would still insist that people should check the facts. Take this from James Kirkup:

This brings us back to childcare, which the OECD calculates can cost 30 per cent of the wages of the typical double-income couple. That’s almost twice the cost in countries that make a proper effort to help people combine work and parenthood: a Finnish couple pays 18 per cent. The prohibitive costs of UK childcare should be a problem for everyone, but they fall more on women than men.

That all seems entirely logical until we check fertility rates. That for the UK is 1.65, that for Finland 1.35. The real world seems to be telling us that higher childcare costs produce more children - so if you desire more children lower childcare costs are not the way to go.

Yes, of course, it does seem absurd and we’d not rely upon those numbers too, too much ourselves. But think for a moment. Imagine a society in which having the one child really does block off any attempt at a career, or even work itself. The decision to have a child could well then lead to the decision to have many for the opportunity costs of the second, third and subsequent are much lower, aren’t they?

We’re not, of course, suggesting that as policy - see above about being liberals. But that does at least accord with the first and most important rule of economics, that incentives matter. It also has the useful attribute of according with reality as judged by those figures on offer from Mr. Kirkup.

We’re against the very idea of managing the population because we’re liberals. But even among those who would do so could we suggest that little exercise of checking the facts occasionally?