Well, that depends really, doesn't it?

This could be true, certainly:

The ‘wonder drugs’ that could fix Britain’s sick note economy

With record numbers out of work, weight-loss jabs may hold the answer

Now whether it will actually be true is another matter.

There are indeed many millions signed off sick but whether something that cures a physical illness will bring them back does depend. It’s possible to take a number of views here. Some might say that government, over the decades, has deliberately parked people on sickness benefits to make the unemployment numbers look better. It’s possible that the modern world really does make so many people so sick they cannot work. Even, we’re such a rich country that what an earlier time might call a minor issue that mustn’t be grumbled over is now a ticket to benefits. There’s even that thought that people are entirely rational. If the lowly paid will face a 60 to 90% (which does happen for many) marginal tax rate between benefits and work income then why bother?

We tend to believe all of those in varying quantity.

Which is, we think, where this becomes really interesting. For cures for some to many of those diseases will reveal that truth to us, won’t it? If the cause of the sicknote changes, not the number of them, then it’s not, actually, a health issue at all. Therefore efforts should be aimed at the other issues. If, on the other hand, economic inactivity through illness declines markedly then we’ve no problems with the incentives in our tax and benefit system.

That is, as we say, what’s so interesting here. We get to find out. What fun.